NEWS DESK-The Iranian writer and journalist Amir Taheri said that the idea fixed in the minds of various political and diplomatic circles in the west at the current time that the war in Syria has reached a peak, and that it is time for all to focus efforts on the reconstruction of the country, other ideas conceived, this idea is also full of multiple gaps.
He added “The war in Syria and the search for a way out of the maze” dealt with the balance of war in Syria.
He said “The first gap is that what we have seen in Syria over the past seven years has not been a war in the classic sense of the term, but rather a set of multiple wars intertwined in a fabric or context of human catastrophes exacerbated by rivalry among more than ten influential forces driven by a set of contradictory objectives, and in this sense, far from the end of anything in the Syrian case, we may be already at the beginning of a new phase of this historical tragedy.
The second gap is that if we focus on any of the parallel wars in Syria, we will conclude that it is very difficult to claim that we have reached the finish line. To confirm this, Bashar al-Assad’s regime has shrunk in size, In practice to control the enclaves of land. However, this regime still has sufficient strength to prevent raising hands and surrender.
The writer said “As for the so-called IS, its alleged succession has shrunk from 4,000 square miles to no more than 2,700 square miles, and the Syrian opposition forces are now biased in a part of Idlib province alongside an archipelago of small influence areas distributed on the Syrian map. “
The writer and journalist said that Russia was also required to witness a state of diminished strength on the ground. It may have already secured a permanent foothold in the eastern Mediterranean, but it is fully aware of the difficulty of defending and protecting it in the midst of future turmoil in the region. In the coming Russian presidential elections, we may listen to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kind of victories achieved in Syria. But because he is one of the smart leaders, he certainly knows that victory cannot be declared in any war without one of the parties to the conflict recognizing defeat.
As for the goals of the countries trying to extend their influence in Syria, the journalist wrote that Turkey is also discovering the limits of its ability to score more points in Syria. The fact that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in Syria can be very popular within Turkey itself for a few months to come. He can present the date of the historic elections he is planning and ensure that he will emerge victorious.
While the Iranian position remains pathetic after spending huge sums of money as the Tehran mullahs hoped to secure a corridor to the Mediterranean Sea, with another nearby corridor through Iraq and Syria towards Lebanon, and it is clear that they will not get it.
He added “Regardless to the presence they may establish for themselves in Syria near Lebanon, they will always be subject to Israeli air strikes that Iran, which has no effective air force so far, will not be able to overcome.”
Israel, which has just begun to make its own contribution to the current events, will have a happy feeling of Syria’s demise as a credible threat in its foreseeable future. However, Syria has never been under the Assad family as a real and effective threat to the Jewish state, while Syria as “unregulated territory”, along with a malignant combination of uncontrollable groups, could become a constant source of inconvenience. , If not an existential threat to Israel’s security.
In such situations, the idea was that we had reached the end, that is, the end of the conflict, but without actually reaching the finish line. The problem in such situations is that those involved often end up using the current situation, which, although they do not give them what they hope to get, is not too expensive to require a dramatic withdrawal from the conflict.
He ended “There is nothing less than a serious international effort that can rebuild the entity that collapsed as a unified nation state.”